About
I am an economist working on Bitcoin and digital asset markets. I analyze them through economics and econometrics and translate this into tools, strategy and content for institutional investors. My work bridges academic research and the practitioner world: building quantitative models, writing for institutional audiences, supporting fund strategy and investor relations and turning complex data into clear decisions.
I developed the PRESS model, which uses Bitcoin's deviation from its long-run power law trend to generate probability distributions over future returns. On the applied side, I work across fund structuring, due diligence, distribution strategy and market analysis for digital asset investment products.
Currently Lead Researcher at Melanion GreenTech in Paris, covering quantitative analysis across Bitcoin and crypto markets, mining and energy economics, fund strategy and institutional content. PhD in Economics (Dr. rer. oec.) from Ruhr University Bochum. Dissertation: "Bitcoin Adoption, Investor Behaviour and Uncertainty", advised by Prof. Matthias Busse and Prof. Joscha Beckmann.
Research Interests
Bitcoin Power Law Dynamics & PRESS Model
Mining Economics & Energy Transition
Macro-Crypto Transmission & Geopolitical Risk
Volatility Forecasting & Return Distributions
Institutional Adoption
Development Economics
Publications
2026
PRESS: Power Law Return Sigma Signal
Wüstenfeld, J.
Working Paper
Conditions on Bitcoin's standardised deviation from its long-run power law trend (σ) to generate probability distributions over future returns at 1–90 day horizons via rolling quantile regression. Outperforms the unconditional benchmark in 34 of 35 quantile-horizon cells with pinball loss reductions of 4–27%. A Half-Kelly BTC/Cash portfolio beats buy-and-hold on 100% of 2,771 entry dates over the 8.6-year out-of-sample period (Sharpe 0.74 vs 0.61).
2025
Bitcoin Hashrate Dynamics: Price, Revenue Correction, and Evolution
Wüstenfeld, J. & Geldner, T.
Working Paper
Documents how Bitcoin mining evolved from speculative to professionalized operations using time-varying SVAR with stochastic volatility. Introduces a revenue correction normalising daily revenue to the protocol's 144 block/day target to remove simultaneity bias. Early-period (2012–2013) day-1 hashrate responses to price shocks exceed recent (2023–2025) estimates by 100% (0.034 vs 0.017 sd), reflecting the transition from speculative to professionalized capacity decisions.
2024
The Relevance of Media Sentiment for Small and Large Scale Bitcoin Investors
Beckmann, J., Geldner, T. & Wüstenfeld, J.
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 92, 101963
First paper to use Glassnode entity-level data in economic research. Breakpoint regressions across seven entity-size categories show explanatory power for public information drops monotonically with entity size (R² from 46% for the smallest to 2% for the largest). Small entities respond to media sentiment, buzz and price; entities holding more than 10,000 BTC show no significant response — implying their behaviour is driven by non-public information.
2024
Trade Liberalisation and Manufacturing Employment in Developing Countries
Busse, M., Dary, S.K. & Wüstenfeld, J.
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 70, 410–421
Estimates the impact of trade liberalisation on manufacturing employment across 131 developing countries over 1991–2020 using panel fixed-effects and instrumental variable regressions. Finds that trade liberalisation has on average harmed manufacturing employment, with the strongest negative effects in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America — consistent with trade-driven deindustrialisation. Improving labour productivity emerges as the central policy lever for restoring manufacturing competitiveness.
2023
Bitcoin Network Activity and Bitcoin Price Return Volatility
Wüstenfeld, J.
Working Paper
Introduces 19 on-chain activity metrics as proxies for Bitcoin network activity and tests whether they explain BTC return volatility via a two-step GARCH(1,1) approach. Key insight: for Coin Days Destroyed and exchange-inflow CDD, magnitude (extreme-event dummies) matters more than level. A SOPR decomposition reveals an asymmetry — profit-taking moves short-term volatility while long-term holders selling at a loss does not.
2022
Economic Uncertainty and National Bitcoin Trading Activity
Wüstenfeld, J. & Geldner, T.
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 59, 101625
Country-level analysis of how local and global economic surprise shocks affect Bitcoin trading activity across eight countries, using LocalBitcoins and Paxful P2P data with GARCH(5,7) and Frisch–Waugh–Lovell decomposition. Bitcoin's response to uncertainty is country- and regime-specific: Canada exhibits speculative behaviour pre-COVID, while New Zealand and Australia show safe-haven characteristics during the COVID period.
Other Writing
2024
Bitcoin: A Paradigm Shift in Wealth Preservation
Wüstenfeld, J. & Fabio. Comprehensive Bitcoin investment thesis for Coinfinity
2025
Bits of Bitcoin Research
Newsletter reviewing academic Bitcoin literature with original analysis
2020
Bitcoin Market Intelligence & Long-Form Writing
Market analysis, macro correlations, on-chain metrics, institutional adoption